So we need to talk.
Not about this. I'm aware. Hey, it’s the only thing I can grow on this head of mine now.
But about this.
More homes above a million dollars are canceling their listings than actually selling. And if you're thinking "well, that sounds bad" — that means you’re probably a seller. But here’s the deal, it's probably going to get worse before it gets better.
But first. A reminder of why we choose to call Southwest Colorado home.
I'm Matt Martin, a realtor with Team M-Squared. But also a part-time skier, when snow actually falls from the sky — which this year has not. We've had the worst winter on record.
But you know what is falling though?
Demand for million-dollar homes.
Sales for homes over a million dropped 17% in 2025. And before you say "well maybe they're just overpriced" — yes. That's exactly what I'm saying. That's the whole thing.
Here's where it gets interesting.
Go back to 2020. Market explodes. Prices go insane. Cancellations go up too, but that was mostly COVID anxiety — people pulling out because they didn't know if civilization was ending. Reasonable.
2021 — sales shoot up. Cancellations stay flat. Great. Things are working. This continues through 2024, when sales grow 42%. Kinda shocking.
But here's the part nobody talks about. Cancellations grew 111% that same year. More homes were being pulled off the market than sold. And by 2025, the gap had stretched to 15%.
Then 2026 shows up. Through February alone — 21 cancellations. A record and a 75% increase over last year at the same time.
Now look at the data on price per square foot — what sold versus what canceled. Markets peaked in summer 2022. And sellers of million-dollar homes? They were still reaching for the sky. Those that cancelled were way off base on the price of their homes. Right now, today, the average canceled listing is priced about $155,000 more than what it's actually worth.
And I've been inside a lot of these homes. I've seen the listings. I genuinely wish I could show you some of these photos, because you would look at your screen, tilt your head like a confused dog, and ask yourself: how in the actual hell is that worth a million dollars?
Here's the answer: it isn't.
So if you want to sell in 2026, you have to price for 2026.
At Team M-Squared, we've made a decision: we're not taking listings from sellers who aren't realistic. Not because we don't want the business — we do. But because sticking a sign in someone's yard for six months and then watching it expire doesn't help them. It helps nobody.
When we take your listing, here's what happens. We’re gonna be honest with you. We tell you the real number.
Not the number that you want to hear.
The number buyers will actually pay.
Then we go find those buyers ourselves rather than just submitting the listing to the MLS. We’re talking Texas. New Mexico. Arizona. California. We know where they come from and we know how to reach them through targeted advertising.
Case in point: we had a barndominium off Highway 84 with a 4,800 square foot garage.
Over a million-dollar price point. Super tricky to sell. Especially during the slowest time of year to sell anything in Pagosa Springs.
Most homes like that sit for 110 days before they even get an offer. We got an offer in under a month. Because the seller trusted the pricing. And let us market the potential of the property. Which that’s where the buyer came from.
Now…What about everything under a million — which is about 85% of this market?
Slightly more grounded over here. Homes under a million are selling at about 4.6% under original list price. Over a million, it's 7.5%.
Cancellations are up 66% across the board.
Days on market up 57%.
The number of sales and prices have been basically flat for three years.
One bright spot: homes under $300k are growing fast — 46% sales growth. Budgets are being constrained and buyers are choosing Condos, mobile homes, places in Aspen Springs. If you're in that price range, things are moving.
So the big question. You’re in the market to buy or sell. What should you do?
I'll be straight with you, because I genuinely can't stand it when realtors say "now is a great time to buy or sell!" like it's a reflex. That’s not useful. It’s a lie.
Here's the real answer: if you don't have to sell right now, wait. The last major correction — 2007 — took about six years for prices to fully recover. In this current market, we peaked in 2022. We're four years in. Best guess is two more years before we see meaningful appreciation again.
Now I'm not predicting a crash for this year. Not unless things go fully sideways geopolitically — which, with a war with Iran, is now apparently on the table. Gas prices are rising. Inflation could become an issue again when we’re spending $1B a day on this war.
But outside of this uncertainity, expect modest price declines, or at best, flat. It should be like a gentle wave cruising through the ocean. Up and down slightly.
For buyers: it's actually a decent time to get in. But only if you're willing to hold at least for five to seven years.
That's my honest read.
And honestly? Whatever your situation is…Pagosa beats Texas in the summer. Maybe we need to include winter in that too. Texas hit 106 degrees in February this year at Falcon Dam. Hottest ever winter temp in US history.
So if you want to escape the heat, hit us up. We’d love to be your guide and share with you the magic of Southwest Colorado.
Cheers.
